关于完善劳动关系协调机制的理性思考与对策建议

劳动关系是市场经济条件下涉及面最广、影响力最大的社会经济关系,劳动关系的和谐对于社会主义和谐社会的构建具有基础性的地位。当前和谐劳动关系工作,应认真研究把握现阶段劳动关系的基本矛盾,查找不和谐的因素,构建和谐劳动关系的理论、政策、法治支撑体系和社会支持体系,完善工会维权机制,现实而前瞻地服务于劳动关系的建立、运行、监督和调处全过程。     

Pulp volume quantification methods in cone-beam computed tomography for age estimation: A critical review and meta-analysis

The secondary dentin deposition that occurs after the tooth formation process results in a decrease in pulp cavity volume in adolescents and adults. The purpose of this critical review was to correlate pulpal and/or dental volume on cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) with chronological age approximation. A subobjective was to investigate which methodology and CBCT technical parameters would be most appropriate to evaluate this correlation. This critical review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and it was conducted by a search through PubMed, Embase, SciELO, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library databases, as well as gray literature. Primary studies that used pulp volume, or pulp chamber to tooth volume ratio measured using CBCT were included. Seven hundred and eight indexed and 31 non-indexed records were identified. A qualitative analysis was performed including 25 selected studies with a total of 5100 individuals, age ranging from 8 to 87 years without sex predilection. The most used method was pulp volume/tooth volume. CBCT voxel size ranged between 0.09 and 0.5. Manual segmentation associated with threshold algorithms was used in most of the studies. Correlation between the pulp volume/tooth volume ratio was moderate: −0.66 for the upper central incisors, −0.59 for upper canines and −0.56 for lower canines. High heterogeneity was observed among the studies. It is concluded that pulp volume should be used with caution in age estimation. Evidence supports the preferable use of upper incisors with pulp volume/tooth volume ratio for age estimation. There is not enough evidence that voxel size interferes in age estimation by pulp volume.     

Study on the standard components of digital forensics laboratory

Recently, digital forensics has become increasingly important as it is used by investigation agencies, corporate, and private sector. To supplement the limitations of evidence capacity and be recognized in court, it is essential to establish an environment that ensures the integrity of the entire process ranging from collecting and analyzing to submitting digital evidence to court. In this study, common elements were extracted by comparing and analyzing ISO/IEC 17025, 27001 standards and Interpol and Council of Europe (CoE) guidelines to derive the necessary components for building a digital forensic laboratory. Subsequently, based on 21 digital forensic experts in the field, Delphi survey and verifications were conducted in three rounds. As a result, 40 components from seven areas were derived. The research results are based on the establishment, operation, management, and authentication of a digital forensics laboratory suitable for the domestic environment, with added credibility through collection of the opinions of 21 experts in the field of digital forensics in Korea. This study can be referred to in establishing digital forensic laboratories in national, public, and private digital forensic organizations as well as for employing as competency measurement criteria in courts to evaluate the reliability of the analysis results.     

Brexit,the Belfast Agreement and Northern Ireland: Imperilling a Fragile Political Bargain

The major impact of the Belfast Agreement was to engineer a peaceful coexistence between nationalism and unionism that involved each bloc recognising it had sufficient power to thwart the political ambitions of the other side, but not enough to push through its own agenda. This paper argues that Brexit seriously damages this peaceful coexistence and could trigger what is termed an Ulster war of attrition in which Northern Ireland becomes entrapped in a political stalemate where each side strives to triumph without having sufficient power to do so. It also argues that to restore internal political stability in Northern Ireland, and to indemnify against the risk of disorderly relationships between the British and Irish governments in the future, the strategic importance of Strand 3 of the Belfast Agreement requires strengthening.     

On prediction in political science

This article discusses recent moves in political science that emphasise predicting future events rather than theoretically explaining past ones or understanding empirical generalisations. Two types of prediction are defined: pragmatic, and scientific. The main aim of political science is explanation, which requires scientific prediction. Scientific prediction does not necessarily entail pragmatic prediction nor does it necessarily refer to the future, though both are desiderata for political science. Pragmatic prediction is not necessarily explanatory, and emphasising pragmatic prediction will lead to disappointment, as it will not always help in understanding how to intervene to change future outcomes, and policy makers are likely to be disappointed by its time-scale.     

Cheap talk,costly talk,crazy talk: patterns in North Korea’s English language propaganda*

This article examines the patterns in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (North Korea’s) use of hostile rhetoric in its internationally-directed messaging. The article first places North Korea’s belligerent rhetoric in the context of that country’s capacity to threaten the US and its Northeast Asian allies; indeed many analysts worry that Pyongyang’s rhetoric represents a conflict escalation risk or even a casus belli. Following this, the article discusses the common explanations – irrationality/incompetence, lack of audience costs, inter alia – for why the North Korean regime employs such hostile rhetoric, and finds these explanations wrong or misleading. The main analysis section describes the results of a study of 10 years of English-language propaganda published by the KCNA (North Korea’s state news agency). A multiple regression model is used to test the relationship between North Korea’s hostile rhetoric and a set of independent variables. The statistical tests indicate a mixed correlation of North Korean rhetoric to the independent variables. One major finding is that there is no correlation between hostile North Korean rhetoric and the country’s kinetic provocations. The conclusion discusses the role that North Korea’s rhetoric plays within the country’s larger adversarial relationship to the US, South Korea, and Japan.     

京津冀协同发展背景下的政策协同评估研究——基于省级“十三五”专项规划文本的分析

从国家层面提出的京津冀协同发展战略,对于推动京津冀一体化,打造以创新为特征的世界级城市群具有重要指导意义。在此背景下,实现区域协同目标,需要率先发挥政策的先导作用。为了保障政策制定的绩效水平,对京津冀三地的政策协同状况进行评估具有重要意义。根据政策协同理论的相关内容,借鉴日趋成熟的政策分析模型,融合文本分析的量化研究方法,构建了基于纵向维度和横向维度的政策协同分析框架,同时运用政策协同量化标准对北京、天津、河北三地的省级"十三五"专项规划进行了指标评分和数据分析,得出了有关京津冀地区政策协同状况的研究发现。     

The Jenin Initiative: Counterinsurgency by Capacity Building

In late 2008, as negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians faltered, the US directed the Jenin Initiative on the ground in the West Bank. Designed to inspire confidence in Washington’s security-driven ‘West Bank First’ strategy, the Jenin Initiative married economic development to security sector reform under the Palestinian Authority. Drawing on the perspectives of those responsible for implementing the Jenin Initiative, this article reveals how counterinsurgency doctrine transplanted from the ‘war on terror’ shaped US interventions that built capacity in the Palestinian Authority. The Jenin Initiative exposes the extent of US intervention to create an effective apparatus of Palestinian self-policing to enhance – but not replace – that of the Israeli occupation.     

中俄海洋安全合作论析

中俄两国在太平洋、北冰洋等海域存在诸多共同的海洋安全目标和利益，双方的海洋安全合作不仅可以在理论层面丰富发展国家间海洋安全合作的内涵，也可在现实层面改善两国的海洋安全环境，维护两国海洋安全权益，同时为全球海洋安全治理做出贡献。21世纪以来，国际形势的变化和中俄关系的相向而行给中俄海洋安全合作营造了良好的外交环境。中俄两国多层级、多领域的合作机制，为两国海洋安全合作的开展提供了丰富的交流沟通平台。北极地区作为新疆域为中俄海洋安全合作带来了新的机遇。中国“一带一路”倡议和俄罗斯“向东看”发展政策也在不断拓展双方共同的海洋安全利益。与此同时，中俄两国的海洋安全合作也面临着“互信程度有待进一步提高、海上防卫方向不完全重合、世界海洋安全环境的复杂与敏感”等问题。在此情况下，通过加强中俄海洋经济的合作、积极构建海洋安全利益共同体以及合理规划中俄海洋安全合作的重点方向和拓展空间，可有效应对双方海洋安全合作面临的挑战。同时，推动多边海洋安全合作机制的建立不仅可为新时代中俄海洋安全合作的深化保驾护航，也有利于促进全球海洋安全的制度化建设。     

How (often) do voters change their consideration sets?

The consideration set model posits that in multi-party elections voters decide in two stages. We expect that in the consideration stage, when voters select viable options, ideological proximity is a key determinant, while in the choice stage election-specific factors become particularly important. This would imply that consideration sets are rather stable and that changes in voting preferences occur mainly within ideologically coherent consideration sets. This study examines both claims by analyzing panel survey data from Sweden and the Netherlands. Consideration sets were indeed rather stable, more so than voting intentions. After one year, voters still considered the same party in 81% of cases and only 13% of respondents shifted between ideological camps. This indicates that voters changed electoral preferences primarily within the boundaries of relatively stable consideration sets and ideological camps. These findings help to understand how elections can be volatile, despite the strong impact of highly stable ideological orientations.